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Research

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annamariaprati afprati

I study how the international community coordinates and collaborates to support the most fragile states in the international system. Within this work, I am most interested in the dynamics between international, national, and local actors. Empirically, I employ mixed methods including field work, formal theory, statistics, and machine learning. I also develop new models and datasets to help address the challenges of localized inference with administrative or remote sensing micro-data.

You can find my paper "A Multi-Task Gaussian Process Model for Inferring Time-Varying Treatment Effects in Panel Data" from AIStats (with Yehu Chen, Jacob Montgomery, and Roman Garnett). We have a working paper version for the social sciences.

Here are my other working papers:

Building State Capacity Locally:International Interventions, Delegation, andLocal Governance in Fragile States (Job Market paper)
  • Presented at the 2024 Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Riverside, CA; the 2024 Visions in Methodology Conference, St. Louis, MO; the 2024 Comparative Politics Annual Conference, St. Louis, MO; the 2024 International Studies Association Annual Convention, San Francisco, CA; the 2024 American Political Science Association's Virtual Conference; the 2023 International Studies Association Midwest Conference, St. Louis, MO; the 2023 Peace Science Society International Meeting, St. Louis, MO; the 2023 Advancing Research on Conflict Consortium, Washington, DC; and the 2023 Borders, Territoriality and the State System Conference, St. Louis, MO.
Beyond Peacekeepers: The United Nations Development Programme and Non-Militarized Violence Mitigation (Awarded Best Poster from APSA at the 2023 conference; Under review)
  • Presented at the 2023 American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, CA; the 2023 Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Stanford, CA; the 2023 Midwest Political Science Association Conference, Chicago, IL; the 2022 Online Peace Science Colloquium; the 2022 International Political Economy Society Conference, Pittsburgh, PA; and the 2022 Comparative Politics Annual Conference, St. Louis, MO.
A Gaussian Process Framework for Structured, Flexible, and Interpretable Machine-Learning Models (with Yehu Chen, Jacob Montgomery, and Roman Garnett)
  • Presented at the 2024 Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Riverside, CA; and the 2023 American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, CA.
Border Fortifications and Trust in Government (with David Carter, Beth Simmons, and Michael Kenwick)
  • Presented at the 2024 International Studies Association Annual Convention, San Francisco, CA.