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Research

I work at the intersection of political methodology and international relations, using diverse methods and micro-level data to study how the international community coordinates and collaborates to support the most fragile states in the international system. Empirically, I use and develop novel methodological tools to address sparseness and inconsistencies in subnational administrative and remote sensing data, a perennial problem in the cross-national study of fragile states that, by definition, often have limited reliable government data. These approaches include machine learning, generative AI, and other computational methods as well as formal theory and field work.

You can find my paper "A Multi-Task Gaussian Process Model for Inferring Time-Varying Treatment Effects in Panel Data" from AIStats (with Yehu Chen, Jacob Montgomery, and Roman Garnett). We have a working paper version for the social sciences.

Here are my other working papers:

Building State Capacity Locally: International Interventions, Delegation, and Local Governance in Fragile States (Job Market paper)

Presented at the 2025 Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Riverside, CA; the 2024 Visions in Methodology Conference, St. Louis, MO; the 2024 Comparative Politics Annual Conference, St. Louis, MO; the 2024 International Studies Association Annual Convention, San Francisco, CA; the 2024 American Political Science Association's Virtual Conference; the 2023 International Studies Association Midwest Conference, St. Louis, MO; the 2023 Peace Science Society International Meeting, St. Louis, MO; the 2023 Advancing Research on Conflict Consortium, Washington, DC; and the 2023 Borders, Territoriality and the State System Conference, St. Louis, MO.

Why not both? Combining human and LLM labels in event data

Presented at the 2025 Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA.

Beyond Peacekeeping: The United Nations Development Programme, Peacebuilding, and Violence Mitigation (Awarded Best Poster from APSA at the 2023 conference; Under review)

Presented at the 2023 American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, CA; the 2023 Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Stanford, CA; the 2023 Midwest Political Science Association Conference, Chicago, IL; the 2022 Online Peace Science Colloquium; the 2022 International Political Economy Society Conference, Pittsburgh, PA; and the 2022 Comparative Politics Annual Conference, St. Louis, MO.

A Gaussian Process Framework for Structured, Flexible, and Interpretable Machine-Learning Models (with Yehu Chen, Jacob Montgomery, and Roman Garnett)

Presented at the 2024 Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Riverside, CA; and the 2023 American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, CA.

Border Fortifications and Trust in Government (with David Carter, Beth Simmons, and Michael Kenwick)

Presented at the 2024 International Studies Association Annual Convention, San Francisco, CA.